A nomogram model for predicting the risk of primary biliary cholangitis

Objectives Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic liver disease characterized by the progressive destruction of small intrahepatic bile ducts and cholestasis. This study aimed to evaluate PBC-related hematological indicators to develop a nomogram model, providing a reliable diagnostic tool for patients who are negative for PBC-specific antibodies. Methods A total of 188 patients (47 with PBC and 141 without PBC) were enrolled in the study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify independent risk factors and construct the nomogram model. The diagnostic model was evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Independent risk factors for PBC included gender (OR = 0.205, 95% CI: 0.051--0.701), age (OR = 1.051, 95% CI: 1.012--1.096), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (OR = 0.988, 95% CI: 0.977--0.996), alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (OR = 1.012, 95% CI: 1.006--1.019), hemoglobin (HGB) (OR = 1.273, 95% CI: 1.008--1.647), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) (OR = 0.839, 95% CI: 0.741--0.937), and platelet count (PLT) (OR = 0.987, 95% CI: 0.977--0.995). Conclusions The PBC diagnostic model demonstrated excellent discriminative and calibration capabilities, along with strong clinical utility, making it a valuable reference tool for clinical decision-making.