Impact of Climate Variation on Malaria Incidence Rates In Sub Saharan Africa

Background: Malaria remains a major public health concern in sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of Congo among the most affected (1). While climate variability, particularly rainfall, influences malaria transmission through mosquito breeding habitats, the extent of its impact varies by region (2, 3). This study investigates the correlation between malaria incidence rates and rainfall patterns from 2020 to 2022 in the three selected countries, alongside a descriptive epidemiological review of national control policies. Methodology: Malaria incidence data were collected from WHO reports for the years 2020 to 2022, while annual rainfall data were sourced online. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to assess the relationship between rainfall and malaria incidence. The coefficient of variation was also calculated for both variables to evaluate data stability. Microsoft Excel was used for graphical representation. A descriptive epidemiological review was conducted to assess the effectiveness of malaria control policies in each country. Results: Nigeria recorded a malaria incidence decline from 313.76 to 305, Mozambique from 234 to 223, and the Democratic Republic of Congo from 330 to an estimated 310. Correlation analysis showed a strong negative relationship between rainfall and malaria incidence in Nigeria (r = -0.7651) and Mozambique (r = -0.99), but a strong positive correlation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (r = 0.895). Nigeria demonstrated the most effective control measures, followed by Mozambique. Conclusion: The study highlights that rainfall’s influence on malaria incidence is moderated by the effectiveness of national control strategies. Strengthening region-specific interventions remains key to sustained malaria reduction in sub-Saharan Africa.