Evaluating Wheat Cultivation Trends and Yield Performance in Nigeria, India, and Pakistan: An ARIMA-Based Approach

ABSTRACT This study analyzes the trends and performance of wheat production in Nigeria, India, and Pakistan using secondary data obtained from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) database covering the period 1982 to 2022. Key indicators examined include cultivated area, yield, and total production, to understand the evolving patterns in wheat cultivation across the selected countries. The results reveal that India recorded an average annual growth rate of 0.82% in cultivated area, 2.39% in production, and 1.57% in yield. Pakistan exhibited a similar positive trend, with yield increasing by 1.68%, production by 2.24%, and cultivated area by 0.56%. In contrast, Nigeria experienced a 2.62% increase in cultivated area but a decline in average yield. Forecasting using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model projects that yield in India will range between 3.34 and 4.46 t/ha, in Pakistan between 2.82 and 3.58 t/ha, and in Nigeria between 0.67 and 1.78 t/ha. The LOESS (Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing) analysis further illustrates distinctive growth patterns across the countries. Overall, the findings highlight India’s dominance in total production and yield performance, while emphasizing persistent yield challenges in Nigeria despite the expansion of cultivated area. The study recommends targeted agricultural policies and investments to enhance wheat productivity, particularly in regions facing declining yield performance.