Predicting the Future of Work: Lay Beliefs about Job Automation

Advancements in automation technology, including AI and robotics, threaten many occupations. Prior work has shed light on experts’ views of automation risk and identified key determinants of the risk for different occupations. Yet research into lay beliefs about job automation risk is limited, a gap this research addresses. This is important because students and job seekers should consider automation risk when making educational and occupational choices. Understanding what drives those beliefs and how they differ from expert predictions could help mitigate the threats linked to future economic displacement (e.g., by informing effective communication strategies about jobs at high risk of automation). A comprehensive study involving 4,388 respondents assessing 542 occupations demonstrates both alignment and divergence between laypeople’s perceptions and expert opinions. Crucially, job prestige is a key but often misleading predictor of lay beliefs about job automation. These findings have significant implications for workers, educators, and policymakers.