Utilising the Additive Model to Examine the Effect of Health Spending on the Health Outcomes of Children Under Five

Background : Evidence from the progress made by the sub-Saharan Campaign SDG campaign shows that more spendings were required to meet the mark as the Target year 2030 approach faster. It is important to determine the association between health spending and these health outcomes to best inform policy. In this paper, we aim to understand and visualise the influence of health expenditure on child health outcome in four east-African countries, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda. Method : Panel data from the World Bank's World Development Indicators, that covered four countries in east Sub-Saharan Africa between 1995 and 2014, was used in the study. This study uses panel data from four East African countries over a 20-year period and adjusts for the non-linear link between child health outcomes and health outcomes using an additive model. Results : The findings revealed both diminishing returns at scale trenches and significant positive effects of health spending on child health outcomes. This means that the Additive Model was the best fit and that the relationship is in fact non-linear. High expenditure failing to yield positive results was observed in countries like Kenya and Uganda, whereas poor efficiency vs high expenditure association was weak in countries like Rwanda. Conclusion : The findings indicate the need to accommodate nonlinear relations between health expenditure influences and health outcomes. The results also provide important insights into how limited resources can be used best to maximize health gain. While limited, this gap can be addressed through the utilization of time-series analysis and implementing machine learning models to improve forecasts and help support policy interventions.