Basic Reproduction Number (R₀) in Epidemiological Analysis: An Artificial Intelligence Approach to Assess BCG Vaccination Impact in Ecuador

This study examines the significance of the basic reproduction number (R0) in epidemiological modeling, with a specific focus on tuberculosis (TB) control through Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination in Ecuador. Using artificial intelligence techniques, we developed a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to evaluate the impact of Ecuador's single-dose BCG vaccination policy. Our analysis revealed an estimated average R0 of 0.00329, with BCG vaccination contributing to an average reduction of 54.59 cases per 100,000 population, representing a 49.65% decrease in TB incidence. This paper discusses the advantages and limitations of R0 calculation in epidemiological studies and highlights the implications for tuberculosis control strategies in Ecuador and similar settings. Our findings underscore the value of R0 as a critical parameter for assessing vaccination program effectiveness and guiding public health interventions.