Spatiotemporal trends in prevalence, incidence, and disability due to osteoarthritis in Mexico, 1990–2021: A GBD 2021-based study

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a leading cause of disability that disproportionately affects women and older adults. Despite its global prevalence, the spatiotemporal burden of OA in Mexico remains unquantified, necessitating a nationwide evaluation of its epidemiological trends, sex-age disparities, and geographical heterogeneity to guide preventive and therapeutic interventions. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis using publicly available data of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) to quantify the national burden of OA in Mexico. We assessed temporal trends (1990–2021) in prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs), stratified by anatomical site (hand, hip, knee, and other sites), sex, and age group. Subnational spatial distribution patterns were analyzed to identify disparities, with estimates reported as counts and rates (per 100,000 people) with 95% uncertainty intervals. Results: In 2021, OA affected 8.28% (95% UIs: 7.32–9.17) of Mexico's population, representing 10.2 million prevalent cases (9.0–11.3 million). The annual disease burden included 845,738 incident cases (741,869–936,364) and 360,985 YLDs (172,240–727,106). Women accounted for 56.98% of cases and adults aged 50-74 years contributed 67.84% of the burden. Anatomically, knee OA represented the most prevalent manifestation (5.95 million cases), followed by hand OA (3.89 million cases). Temporal analysis revealed substantial increases in disease metrics between 1990 and 2021. Geospatial analysis demonstrated marked heterogeneity in OA burden across Mexico's 32 states, highlighting distinct regional epidemiological patterns. Conclusions: OA constitutes an escalating public health issue in Mexico, characterized by sex disparities, age-specific burden, and regional variability. The prevalence of OA is expected to rise due to population aging and increasing obesity rates. This necessitates immediate, multifaceted interventions focused on obesity reduction, promotion of physical activity, support for healthy aging, and enhanced healthcare professional training. Such strategies are critical to preventing mobility impairments, preserving quality of life, and alleviating the substantial economic burden of direct healthcare costs and indirect productivity losses. Implementing targeted public health policies tailored to regional disparities and high-risk populations will be essential to effectively mitigate the growing impact of OA on Mexico’s health system and society.