The Economic and Environmental Implications of Solenopsis invicta Invasion in the European Union

The red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta), recently detected in the European Union (Sicily, 2022), represents a significant and emerging threat to European agriculture. This study presents the first EU-scale economic assessment of prevention and control strategies for Solenopsis invicta, employing a cost–benefit analysis framework. We evaluate three management scenarios: no intervention, moderate surveillance (16.2% of vulnerable areas), and intensive surveillance (35.4%). Our results highlight that early and intensive surveillance efforts markedly reduce long-term economic impacts, especially for high-value crops such as citrus and potatoes. Projections based on climate change scenarios suggest that by 2070, nearly 30% of EU territory could become suitable for Solenopsisinvicta establishment, underlining the urgency of coordinated preventive measures. The analysis further reveals that even a one-year delay in implementing control strategies can double the economic burden. These findings emphasise the importance of timely detection, targeted surveillance, and harmonised EU-level action. By quantifying the economic consequences of invasion scenarios, this study provides evidence-based thresholds to inform policy decisions and investments in invasive pest management under current and future climate conditions. JEL Classification: D61, Q57, Q15, Q54, Q18