The Impact of Mine Ownership on Trade of Metal Ores

Metals are essential to the global economy, yet traditional criticality assessments—often based solely on the geographic concentration of mining production—overlook the corporate control dimension of risk. This study analyzes trends in both production location and corporate ownership across 12 critical metals from 2000 to 2022 using data from S&P Capital IQ Pro. We quantify market concentration via the Hirschman–Herfindahl Index (HHI) and compare production-based and ownership-based measures, while assessing the relationship between ownership and trade flows. Our results show a growing divergence: while emerging economies dominate extraction, corporate control remains concentrated in high-income countries. Notably, we find no correlation between mine ownership and trade flows. Future scenarios for lithium, copper, and cobalt suggest continued shifts in production and ownership by 2040, with implications for supply security. These findings highlight the need to integrate corporate control into criticality assessments for a more complete understanding of supply risks.