Modeling and Forecasting of Rainfall Distribution in Kelem Wolega Zone of Oromia Region

ARIMA models were applied in the modeling and forecasting of the monthly rainfall distribution in Kelem Wolega Zone, Ethiopia. This study, therefore, dwells on developing an appropriate model that can be used for forecasting to inform water resource management and agricultural planning. Monthly rainfall data for a period of 120 months from the Oromia Region metrology station were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, including trend analysis and stationarity testing. ADF and Phillips-Perron unit root tests supported the stationarity of the rainfall series. The AIC has identified the best fit for the dataset as an ARMA model of order (0,1). ARMA forecasting at order (0,1) showed a relative decrease in rainfall for the forecasted months that could affect agricultural productivity. These findings show that supplemental irrigation is essential for sustainable development in Kelem Woleja Zone.