Modeling the spatiotemporal questing density of Rhipicephalus bursa and Hyalomma lusitanicum in central-southern Spain: insights for tick-borne pathogen transmission risk
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Free-living ticks Rhipicephalus bursa and Hyalomma lusitanicum represent a significant risk to their hosts primarily due to their role as vectors of infectious diseases, with Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever as an emerging public health concern in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Both species are distributed across the Iberian Peninsula, with H. lusitanicum mainly in the central and southern regions, and R. bursa throughout the entire region. However, differences in the behaviour and ecology of both species have been observed across their distribution ranges. Currently, the factors determining the spatiotemporal abundances of the two species within their distribution areas remain unknown, as well as whether differences exist among their populations. From 2004 to 2006 and from 2019 to 2023, monthly/fortnightly samplings were conducted at eight sites in two regions of central-southern Spain to estimate the spatiotemporal variation in the questing density of H. lusitanicum and R. bursa. The temporal and spatial abundances of both species were modelled in relation to variations in local biotic and abiotic environmental conditions by employing generalized linear mixed models with a negative binomial distribution for spatial models and a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution for temporal models. The primary factor determining the temporal abundance pattern of both species is seasonality, while the spatial abundance is influenced by areas with high habitat favourability for red deer and with adequate humidity. The result of the spatial models enables the development of risk maps for the abundance of both species. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal models could serve as a foundation for constructing more precise predictive models to identify the spatiotemporal windows with the highest potential for interactions between animals/humans and R. bursa and H. lusitanicum, which may facilitate the transmission of tick-borne pathogens.
