Spatial and temporal distribution and evolutionary trend of thyroid cancer incidence in Guangzhou, 2010-2020

Purpose The spatiotemporal distribution of thyroid cancer in Guangzhou was studied using spatial information system technology, offering a scientific foundation for successful thyroid cancer prevention and treatment. Methods The Joinpoint model was used to assess the incidence rate of thyroid cancer over time in various regions. Hierarchical maps were created with the ArcGIS software to investigate the spatial distribution features of the incidence rate. Use spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal aggregation scanning analysis methods to assess geographical clustering. Standard deviation ellipse analysis was used to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of incidence. Results The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 6.46/10 ⁵ in 2010 to 33.15/10 ⁵ in 2020, showing a nearly five-fold increase. The ASIR of urban regions was highest, but the growth rates of suburban regions and country regions were faster than that of urban regions, and the regional disparity was gradually narrowing. The spatial distribution of thyroid cancer incidence has significant spatial heterogeneity and aggregation. The hotspots clustered in the urban regions, Panyu and Nansha districts in the south, Huadu district in the north, and Zengcheng district in the east. The spatiotemporal evolution trends showed that since 2010, the incidence rate first migrated to the south-west, and then migrated to the north-east from 2015. Conclusions Significant heterogeneity and aggregation were seen in the spatial distribution of the thyroid cancer incidence rate in Guangzhou, and the regional disparity decreased. The evolution trend matched Guangzhou's "expanding in the south, expanding in the north, and advancing in the east" policy.