Environmental correlates of Aedes aegypti abundance in the West Valley Region of San Bernardino County, California, U.S.A. from 2017- 2023: an ecological modeling study

Aedes mosquitoes, particularly Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus , are major vectors of globally significant diseases such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. Since 2013, Ae. aegypti populations have rapidly expanded in California, making control efforts difficult because of their cryptic breeding sites and urban habitat preference. Remote sensing technologies, coupled with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), offer innovative solutions for mosquito surveillance and control. However, understanding the environmental drivers of mosquito abundance, particularly in California’s diverse ecological settings, remains a critical gap. To address this gap, we analyzed Ae. aegypti abundance (2017 to 2023) in relation to environmental variables, such as temperature, precipitation, surface water, elevation, and built environment. We applied hotspot analysis to identify spatial clusters of high mosquito abundance and used a generalized additive model (GAM) with a negative binomial distribution to assess environmental and meteorological influences on mosquito counts. Hotspot analyses revealed clusters of Ae. aegypti hotspots near residential areas. Ae. aegypti counts increased with higher surface water availability and temperature. Our study elucidates the complex dynamics of Ae. aegypti mosquito abundance in the West Valley Region of San Bernardino County from 2017 to 2023, shedding light on the influence of environmental factors and human activities on temporal trends. Our findings emphasize the critical role of temperature and water availability in shaping mosquito population dynamics, highlighting the need for proactive vector control strategies in response to environmental changes.