Ecological traits, not evolutionary history, predict climate vulnerability of global terrestrial vertebrates

Climate change is reshaping species distributions, yet the extent to which vulnerability to climate-driven range loss is shaped by evolutionary history versus ecological traits remains unresolved. Here, we integrate high-resolution species distribution models with spatial, life-history, and phylogenetic trait data for 26,202 terrestrial vertebrates worldwide. We find that vulnerability to climate change is poorly conserved across the vertebrate tree of life (phylogenetic D ≈ 0.84–0.90) but is strongly predicted by ecological traits such as narrow elevational and latitudinal ranges, large body size, and habitat specialization. These trait-vulnerability associations are consistent across amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Species already classified as threatened by IUCN face disproportionately higher risk, particularly when combined with narrow ecological niches. Our findings challenge the assumption that closely related species share similar climate sensitivities, and instead support a trait-based framework for understanding and predicting species' climate vulnerability. This work provides critical insights into the evolutionary ecology of extinction risk and identifies conservation priorities under rapid environmental change.