The "recognition", "belief", and "action" regarding conspiracy theories: An empirical study using large-scale samples from the United States and Japan

Conspiracy theories present significant societal challenges, shaping political behavior, undermining public trust, and destabilizing social cohesion. Addressing their impact requires recognizing that engagement with conspiracy theories is not a singular act but a multi-stage process characterized by distinct cognitive and behavioral transitions. In this study, we investigate this sequential progression, "recognition", "belief", and "action" (demonstrative action and diffusion action), using nationally representative surveys from the United States (N=13,578) and Japan (N=16,693). Applying a Bayesian hierarchical model, we identify the key social, political, and economic factors that drive engagement at each stage, providing a structured framework for understanding the mechanisms of conspiracy theory adoption and dissemination. We find that recognition serves as a crucial gateway to belief, with distinct factors shaping demonstrative and diffusion actions. Demonstrative actions are more prevalent among younger, high-status individuals with strong political orientations, while diffusion actions span a broader demographic, particularly among those actively engaged with diverse media channels. Our findings further reveal that early-life economic and cultural capital significantly influence the form of conspiratorial engagement, emphasizing the role of life course experiences. These insights highlight the necessity of targeted interventions addressing structural, cultural, and psychological factors to mitigate the proliferation and societal impact of conspiracy theories.