The impact of artificial intelligence on industrial chain resilience: evidence from China’s manufacturing industry

Strengthening the robustness and the stability of industrial chains is not only a necessary pathway to achieving the strategic goals of China’s new development paradigm but also a fundamental pillar in building a modern economic system with Chinese characteristics. Drawing on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2011 to 2022, this study constructs index systems for artificial intelligence and manufacturing industry chain resilience (Mir) using the entropy weight method. It systematically examines the effects of artificial intelligence on Mir and its underlying mechanisms. The key findings are as follows: (1) Artificial intelligence significantly enhances Mir, a result confirmed through multiple robustness tests; (2) Mechanism analysis reveals that artificial intelligence improves Mir primarily through technological innovation effects and digital empowerment effects; (3) Threshold effects indicate that artificial intelligence’s impact on Mir exhibits nonlinear characteristics under varying levels of artificial intelligence development and digital infrastructure; (4) Heterogeneity analysis shows a pronounced structural divergence in artificial intelligence’s resilience-enhancing effects, with stronger technological empowerment observed in high-resilience clusters, dimensions of adaptive recovery and innovative reconfiguration, and export-oriented supply chains. This study offers a novel theoretical perspective and methodological framework for assessing Mir within the new development paradigm.