Spatial Analysis of Pricing Patterns and Economic Value of Urban Housing (Case Study: District 10 of Tehran)

Housing is one of the key elements in meeting the biological, economic, and social needs of households. The rapid growth of urbanization, increasing urban population, rural-to-urban migration, deterioration and demolition of old buildings, decreasing household size, and similar factors have made housing provision a major challenge in large cities, including Tehran. This issue is particularly significant in developing countries like Iran. This study conducts a spatial analysis of pricing patterns and the economic value of housing in District 10 of Tehran. In terms of purpose, the research is applied, and in terms of method, it is descriptive-analytical with a quantitative approach. To conduct the study, regression analysis and Moran’s Index were used. Housing prices (both villas and apartments) were considered as the dependent variable, while 14 indicators were selected as independent variables. For spatial analyses, ArcGIS software was utilized. The results of the multivariate regression analysis indicate that among the factors affecting housing price fluctuations, household income, with a 17% direct impact, is the most significant economic factor. Additionally, density, with a 77% direct impact, is the most important social factor in determining housing prices. Moreover, building age (63%) and structural type (31%) have the most significant inverse effects on housing price fluctuations in District 10 of Tehran. Analyzing urban accessibility revealed that access to healthcare centers has the most substantial inverse impact on housing prices in the southern parts of District 10, whereas access to commercial centers has the highest direct impact on housing exchange value in the area. Furthermore, the concentration of hot spots, representing areas with the highest housing transactions, is primarily observed in the northern and some central parts of District 10. These findings can provide valuable insights for urban policymakers in planning and managing the housing market.