States, Stats, and Shots: The Omnibus Theoretical Value of Vaccination Rates As Predictors of US Presidential Voting Patterns

This study examines the predictors of U.S. presidential voting patterns, focusing on the interplay between psychological, sociocultural, and health-related factors. Using state-level data from seven presidential elections (2000–2024), the analysis evaluates the predictive power of intelligence (IQ), well-being indicators (e.g., education, income), Big Five personality traits, and COVID-19 vaccination rates. Among these, vaccination rates emerged as the strongest and most consistent predictor of state-level election outcomes, underscoring the polarization of health behaviors as a reflection of partisan identity. Additionally, suppression effects highlighted the complex interactions between demographic variables, such as racial composition and IQ, in enhancing predictive accuracy. While traditional predictors like well-being and personality traits remain relevant, the findings reveal that health-related behaviors encapsulate deeper ideological and cultural divides. By integrating established and novel predictors, this study advances the understanding of voting behavior in an increasingly polarized society and emphasizes the value of multidimensional approaches in electoral modeling.