Mapping pluralistic future flood risk scenarios for informal settlements in the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality, South Africa

The paper explores the application of anticipatory governance principles (AG) integrated with Geographic information systems (GIS) to assess future flood risk scenarios for informal settlements within the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality, South Africa. The rapid expansion of informal settlements and intensifying rainfall patterns due to climate change pose severe challenges for flood risk management. Using a pluralistic futures-based approach to AG, this study develops flood risk scenarios projected for 2050 based on three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP 1, SSP 2 and SSP 5), representing the best case, middle-of-the-road and worst case scenarios. GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was used to create flood risk maps for the various flood risk scenarios. The findings indicate that some of the municipality's biggest and most densely populated informal settlements, including Inanda, Umlazi, KwaMashu and KwaMakhuta will face exposure to extremely high flood risk in all flood risk scenarios by 2050. Additionally, cross-scenario analysis revealed that approximately 46.8 km² of informal settlements within the municipality will face extremely high flood risk by 2050. This study reiterates the need for anticipatory urban planning and disaster risk reduction strategies that accommodate diverse future scenarios. Integrating AG with GIS mapping presents a robust tool for enhancing flood risk reduction in informal settlements.