Unravelling drivers of the future Mediterranean precipitation paradox during cyclones

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Abstract

Climate models indicate that the Mediterranean region is projected to experience both general drying and increased cyclone-related precipitation, intensifying flood risks, especially under high-emission scenarios. The use of high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled climate models allows to identify the key role of moisture advection and convection processes in cyclone-related precipitation thanks to the more realistic representation of ocean dynamics and air-sea interactions, that low-resolution global models struggle to capture.

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