The Emberger Bioclimatic Classification System for the Forestry Management Under the Climate Change in the Mediterranean Region

Climate change, characterized by fluctuating precipitation and temperature patterns, poses a significant threat to ecological stability at global, regional, and local scales. Within its biodiversity, Mediterranean regions are expected to be particularly vulnerable, making climate monitoring essential to understand their interactions with biotic and abiotic factors. This study evaluates the impact of different bioclimatic conditions on forest stand types with a focus on temporal and spatial assessment at the western Mediterranean coast of Türkiye as a test case. The objective of the present study was to provide a scientific basis for future afforestation programmes, utilising a spatial distribution approach to support planting applications and planning processes. In this context, a correlation has been identified between Emberger bioclimatic classes and tree species, as well as potential impacts of future climate change scenarios have been evaluated. Emberger indices were derived by interpolating precipitation and temperature data from 108 meteorological stations (1970–2018). Cramér's V test showed a strong relationship between Emberger climate classes and forest species in this Mediterranean region. Findings indicate a 30% shift from the semiarid winter cold bioclimate to the semiarid winter cold class under RCP 4.5. A similar transition (30.17%) occurred under RCP 8.5, with a 50% increase in the semiarid winter cold class. Vegetation analysis revealed significant spatial changes in species distribution. This study highlights the relevance of Emberger’s bioclimatic classification as a crucial tool for identifying species patterns and ecological niches in Mediterranean vegetation, guiding conservation, afforestation, restoration, and biodiversity management under climate change.