An Examination of the Decoupling Effect and Influential Mechanisms of Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Chinese Urban Areas

Under the “dual-carbon” target and the shift towards a high-quality economy, achieving a decoupling of energy consumption from economic growth is crucial. This study investigates the decoupling effect and the spatial-temporal dynamics of energy use and economic development across 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2021, employing the Tapio decoupling model. To thoroughly assess the factors influencing energy decoupling, a geographically weighted Durbin model is constructed based on an extended STIRPAT model. Findings reveal that:① There are notable disparities and variations in the decoupling status across regions, and from the 11th Five-Year Plan period to the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the number of cities exhibiting a weak decoupling state has diminished, with numerous cities demonstrating a negative growth decoupling state. ② The decoupling state of the majority of cities is rather steady; nevertheless, a few cities continue to have limited decoupling stability, while the overall decoupling demonstrates a more stable state. ③ The geographical main effect indicates that energy structure and energy intensity exert a considerable positive influence on the energy consumption decoupling index, but GDP per capita and population density have a notable negative impact on the energy consumption decoupling index. ④The spatial spillover effect indicates that a city's energy intensity adversely affects the energy consumption decoupling index of all adjacent regions, while the degree of openness to external influences positively impacts the energy consumption decoupling index of neighboring areas. This paper presents policy recommendations in four areas: differentiated energy management, specialized financial and technical support, enhancement of energy efficiency, and reinforcement of regional cooperation and exchange to achieve the decoupling of energy consumption from economic growth.