Political Violence, Climatic Change and International Migration in the Case of African countries: a Panel VAR Approach

Purpose: African countries are facing the full brunt of the consequences, sometimes severe, of a migration crisis that has dramatic socio-economic impacts. A better understanding of its determinants will help to better contain it and limit its harmful effects. Methods: In this paper we empirically investigate the determinants of migration into sixteen north and subsaharan countries, between 1990 and 2022. We attempt to investigate the socio-economic, political and climatic determinants of international migration. We adopt a vector autoregressive model on panel data. Results: Our results suggest that GDP per capita, economic integration, political instability, income inequality, and climate change have a significant impact on migration flows. This frame work highlights the importance to act on these levers in order to deal with this phenomenon. Conclusion: In order to control migratory flows, countries of the northern and southern shores of the Mediterranean are urged to reconcile their migration policies and tackle the primary sources of this phenomenon in the countries of departure. JEL Classification: F22 , J15 , N17 , C22 , C87