Allocation of Carbon Intensity Target Reduction Rate for China's 332 Cities Based on Entropy Method and Improved Equal-Proportion Distribution Method

The rational allocation of carbon reduction targets is crucial for achieving the country's overall carbon reduction goal. This paper introduces a comprehensive carbon intensity reduction allocation scheme based on the entropy method and an improved equal-proportion distribution method (IEPD method), which integrates fairness and efficiency. Firstly, an indicator system including economic, demographic, energy, and technological innovation aspects is established, and the entropy method is employed to determine the weights of these indicators. Secondly, using the IEPD method, the carbon intensity reduction target for China's 14th Five-Year Plan period (namely, an 18% reduction in carbon intensity by 2025 compared to 2020) is allocated to 332 cities. Thirdly, K-means clustering is utilized to categorize the cities according to seven indicators, and the characteristics of the carbon intensity target reduction rate (CITRR) of each group are analyzed. The results show that: (1) The average CITRR of 332 cities is 13.13%, and the CITRR ranges from 2.76–88.58%. (2) The CITRR shows a step-like regional distribution difference that gradually decreases from the eastern region to the central and western regions, and the Global Moran I correlation index is 0.24, indicating a positive spatial correlation. (3) K-means clustering divides 332 cities into four categories, and the Kruskal-Wallis test shows a significant difference in the CITRR among the four categories of cities. The allocation plan proposed in this study can help cities assess their carbon intensity reduction capabilities and formulate effective policies.