Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts

In an interconnected world, climate change impacts can cascade across sectors and regions, creating systemic risks. We analyze cascading climate change impacts on the EU27, originating from outside the EU27, and identify critical intervention points for adaptation. Using network analysis, we develop an archetypal impact cascade model synthesizing stakeholder-co-produced impact chains and quantitative data across diverse sectors, integrating insights from foreign policy, trade, human security, and finance for 102 non-EU countries. Key network nodes – water, agriculture, infrastructure, and livelihoods – emerge as critical intervention points. Particularly, low-income countries' vulnerability to cascading impacts is driven by livelihood instability, with violence amplifying risks in conflict-prone regions. High-income countries can induce cascading impacts through reduced crop exports. Our findings highlight risks from isolated adaptation measures: EU27 nearshoring could destabilize livelihoods elsewhere, while agricultural intensification without integrated water-management may exacerbate scarcity – both potentially triggering cascading impacts. Effective adaptation requires strategies addressing interconnected vulnerabilities, not isolated risks.