Revisiting the Mental Health Impact of COVID-19 on Young Adults in the UK: Long-Term Trends, Temporary Setbacks, and Recovery

This study assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of 16- to 29-year-olds in the United Kingdom, using longitudinal data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) and its predecessor, covering the period from 2001 to 2023. The study identifies the causal effects of the lockdown (April 2020–March 2021) and the post-lockdown period (April 2021–March 2022) by estimating counterfactual mental health trajectories based on long-term trends. Unlike prior research, it accounts for potential reporting bias introduced by the UKHLS COVID-19 study. Mental ill-health among young adults had been rising for nearly two decades before the pandemic. During the lockdown period, the average General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) psychological distress score increased by 9% of its standard deviation, while the prevalence of clinically relevant psychological distress rose by 4.5 percentage points. This impact was temporary, with mental health levels returning to predicted trends by April 2021, suggesting no lasting 'scar' on average mental health. The recovery coincided with declining feelings of loneliness and increased life satisfaction. The study also identifies variations in the pandemic’s mental health effects by gender, household income, age, and ethnicity. Women and young adults in the top third of the household income distribution experienced a more pronounced increase in psychological distress during lockdown. However, there is no evidence that the under-30 age group suffered, on average, more severe mental health effects than the rest of the adult population under 60 during the lockdown period. The findings challenge prevalent narratives by demonstrating the relative resilience of young adults in the face of the pandemic.