Climate-Adaptive Energy Efficiency Modeling: A Generalized Additive Approach for Optimizing Building Performance Across Chinese Climate Zones

Accurate Measurement and Verification (M&V) of Energy Efficiency Measures (EEMs) is essential for optimizing energy performance and achieving sustainability goals in commercial buildings. This study introduces an enhanced M&V methodology utilizing Generalized Additive Models (GAM) to evaluate the effectiveness of various EEMs across distinct building types, including office buildings, mixed-use facilities, and healthcare facilities. Comparative analyses reveal that GAM outperforms traditional modeling approaches by achieving lower Coefficient of Variation of Root Mean Square Error (CV(RMSE)) and higher out-of-sample accuracy, thereby providing more reliable estimations of energy savings. Among the assessed EEMs, Lighting Retrofits and HVAC Optimization demonstrated the highest efficacy, delivering substantial energy savings and favorable Return on Investment (ROI) periods, particularly in office and healthcare settings. Additionally, the study examines the impact of environmental factors such as temperature and relative humidity on energy consumption, identifying critical thresholds where energy demand behaviors shift. High humidity levels, in conjunction with elevated temperatures, were found to exacerbate energy penalties, underscoring the importance of climate-responsive energy strategies. To ensure the robustness of the findings, uncertainty was quantified through Monte Carlo simulations, affirming the reliability and stability of the GAM-based M&V framework.