Monitoring the dynamics of land use and land cover, and their impact on seasonal land surface temperature in the Upper Awash Basin, Central Ethiopia

Urbanization and agricultural growth are causing significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC), greatly affecting the biophysical environment. Monitoring these changes is crucial for effective environmental management. This study examines the effects of LULC changes on seasonal land surface temperature (LST) in the Upper Awash Basin (UAB), central Ethiopia, using Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+, and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS data from 1991, 2006, and 2021. LULC was classified using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm, and LST was retrieved with the single-channel algorithm. Between 1991 and 2021, built-up areas expanded by 185.3%, and agriculture by 69.4%, while shrubland decreased by 55.8%, forest by 39.6%, barren land by 33.3%, and water by 13.7%. These changes led to higher mean seasonal LST, with summer temperatures rising from 20.1°C in 1991 to 26.4 °C in 2021 and winter temperatures from 23.6 °C to 29.9 °C. In 1991, no areas experienced LST ≥30 °C in summer, but by 2021, 21% of the area exceeded this threshold. In winter, areas with LST ≥30 °C increased from 38% in 1991 to 42% in 2021. Built-up areas had the highest mean LST in summer, while barren lands did in winter. Water bodies and forested lands consistently had the lowest LST across seasons. LST strongly negatively correlated with NDVI in summer and moderately in winter. It also showed inverse relationships with MNDWI and positive relationships with NDBI and NDBaI. These findings are valuable for land use planners, environmentalists, and researchers working on strategies for regulating LST.