The range of equitable climate finance contributions and recipient flows under the COP29 New Collective Quantified Goal

International negotiations at COP29 concluded with a commitment for annual climate finance to developing countries to reach a minimum of US$300bn by 2035. Here, to provide clarity for national policymakers, we assess “fair” contributions to the US$300bn based on a) historic emissions and b) economic ability. We show that the U.S. should provide US$154.8bn by 2035, falling to US$93.2bn if upper middle-income countries are included. Given its status as the second largest economy and global emitter, China – if included – would need to reach an average of US$43.6bn by 2035. Both China and the U.S. will need to drastically scale up their climate finance over the next decade, but the recent U.S. pause of development aid and falling Chinese energy-related overseas financing over the last decade brings into question the likelihood of this scenario. Equitable contributions presented here will be key to holding national progress in China, the U.S. and elsewhere towards the US$300bn to account.