Experts expect European agroforestry systems to stabilize crop yields under climate change

Climate change is having an impact on European agriculture and will increasingly do so in the future. Agroforestry, the integration of trees or shrubs in agricultural production systems, has been repeatedly voiced as a productive, sustainable and resilient approach of food production. Quantifying agricultural benefits of agroforestry in the context of resilience to current and future climate change in Europe is challenging. In an online survey we gathered 60 experts’ assessment on the resilience of different forms of agroforestry (silvoarable, silvopastoral and systems with hedgerows, riparian buffer strips and windbreaks) in diverse European regions to various climate change variables. Across all regions and independently of the agroforestry system type, agroforestry systems were observed to show stable yields until now (0% change of yield compared to -8% in non-agroforestry systems). Experts expected yield differences between agroforestry and non-agroforestry to increase in future with − 20% yield until 2050 in non-agroforestry systems, while they expected agroforestry systems to accommodate the changes (0% yield change). This gap was highest in central and eastern Europe. In north-western and northern Europe, small yield increases were expected in agroforestry systems. Silvopastoral, silvoarable and systems with hedgerows, riparian buffer strips and windbreaks were similar in terms of observations/expectations of changes in yield. The quality of saleable agricultural products until 2050 was estimated to show a distinct difference between non-agroforestry and agroforestry systems. In particular in arable and hedgeless systems where all of the surveyed experts expected quality to be reduced, while only 48% and 55% thought so for silvoarable and hedgerow systems, respectively. Heavy precipitation events, prolonged drought, late frost, summer heat waves and hail were the main threats by climate change listed by experts. Our expert study emphasizes a general resilience of agroforestry systems to climate change impacts, regardless of the exact system type and climate region.