Incidence of Ascaris ssp in United Mexican States’ population for twenty years (2003-2022) and incidence prediction until 2030

Purpose Soil-transmitted helminth infections affect people who live in areas with poor sanitation, low socioeconomical level. Ascaris lumbricoides is one of the most frequent parasites worldwide and in México. The General Directorate of Epidemiology reports data related to infections weekly, and this study was based on that. The aim of this study was to analyze the SINAVE data for twenty years (2003–2022) to assess the incidence of ascariasis in the United Mexican States. Methods We conducted a retrospective observational analysis of ascariasis from January 2003 to December 2022, classifying data by year, age group, state gender, and season. A predictive model was used to estimate the new cases until 2030. Results From 2003 to 2022, the total number of new cases registered in the whole country decreased by 81.2%. The geographical distribution of the new cases was more pronounced in the Neotropical region of Yucatan, Tabasco, and Chiapas States. Women and infants from 1 to 9 years old exhibited the highest incidence. The prediction model showed that in 2030, there will be an incidence higher than 15000 new cases in the United Mexican States. Conclusions This work indicates that Ascaris infection tends to decrease, which could be related to hands hygiene and the look down during the COVID-19 pandemic.