Projecting the impacts of future climate change on precipitation in the Kashafrud catchment in Iran
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Climate change is known as one of the most critical challenges facing humanity. These changes seriously threaten the Kashafrud River, a significant water resource in northeastern Iran. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on precipitation in the Kashfrud catchment in Iran. The output data of global climate models, including ACCESS-ESM1-5, MRI-ESM2-0, and MIROC6 from the sixth-generation models (CMIP6), have been used to project future climate changes. Based on the accuracy of statistical criteria, the linear scaling (LS) method was employed to do the bias correction of precipitation data. Then, using the CMhyd model, the precipitation data were simulated for the two future periods (2025-54) and (2055-84) under the SSP1_2.6 and SSP5_8.5 scenarios. The average KGE and RMSE coefficients for the precipitation of the selected MIROC6 model were obtained as 0.91 and 21.09, respectively. Average annual rainfall under the scenarios of SSP1_2.6 and SSP5_8.5 in the near future period decreased by 2.92% and increased by 3.44%, respectively. Average annual rainfall was projected as follows: under the SSP1_2.6 and SSP5_8.5 scenarios in the near future period, it decreased by 2.96% and increased by%3.44, and under the SSP1_2.6 و SSP5_8.5 scenarios in the middle future period, it increased by 2.96% and 8.79%, respectively compared to the observation period (1991–2020). In terms of seasonal comparison, in most of the scenarios of the future periods, in the spring and autumn seasons, precipitation will decrease between 1.51% and 8.18%. Precipitation in the future seasons in summer and winter was projected with a slight increase. The results showed that climate change will have a significant impact on the precipitation of the study area. This can have severe consequences for different sectors, including agriculture, industry, and the environment. The research results can be employed as a management tool in the direction of water resources management.
