The Impact of Land Transfer on the Retirement Strategies of Elderly Farmers in China ——An empirical analysis based on the endogenous switching probit model

with China's early entry into a moderately aging society, the aging problem in rural areas has become increasingly prominent, and the pension problem of elderly farmers has become the focus of social attention. Based on the data of the 2018 China Health and pension Survey (Charls), this paper uses the endogenous transformation probit model to analyze the impact of land transfer on elderly farmers' pension strategies. The research shows that, first of all, after the land transfer, the elderly farmers prefer to choose family pension, which is still true after a series of robustness tests, and there are significant regional differences in this effect. The elderly farmers in the central and eastern regions and major grain producing regions prefer family pension, while the elderly farmers in the western and non major grain producing regions prefer individual pension. In addition, the mechanism analysis shows that land transfer significantly increases the possibility of children living separately from their parents, which directly promotes elderly farmers to choose family pension. Finally, factors such as age, gender, endowment insurance ownership, the need to care for grandchildren, children's satisfaction and daily living ability also have a significant impact on the elderly farmers' choice of pension strategies. Based on this, this paper puts forward a series of targeted policy recommendations. In view of the particularity of the western region, this paper puts forward some suggestions, such as strengthening family support for the elderly, building elderly care service facilities, encouraging social participation in elderly care services, and improving family economic income through industrial poverty alleviation.