Sustainable Shipping: Modeling Technological Pathways Toward Zero-Emission in Maritime Transport (Part I)

Maritime transport accounts for approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a figure projected to rise by 17% by 2050 without effective mitigation measures. Achieving zero-emission shipping requires a comprehensive strategy that integrates regulatory frameworks, alternative fuels, and energy saving technologies. However, existing studies often fail to provide an integrated analysis of regulatory constraints, economic incentives, and technological feasibility. This study bridges this gap by developing a predictive model to assess the decarbonization pathways for global shipping from 2018 to 2035. A multi-criterion decision analysis (MCDA) framework, coupled with techno-economic modeling, evaluates the cost-effectiveness, technology readiness, and adoption potential of alternative fuels, operational strategies, and market-based measures. The results indicate that technical and operational measures alone can reduce emissions by up to 44%, while market-based measures improve the diversity of sustainable fuel adoption. Biofuels, particularly BISVO and BIFAME, emerge as preferred alternatives due to cost-effectiveness, while green hydrogen, ammonia, and biomethanol remain unviable without additional policy support. A strict carbon levy increases transport costs by 46%, whereas flexible compliance mechanisms limit cost increases to 14–25%. This study provides a robust decision support framework for policy makers and industry stakeholders, demonstrating that well-structured market-based measures can balance emissions reductions with economic feasibility, guiding future regulatory strategies.