Aerosol inhibition on photochemical surface ozone formation under future climate and air quality scenarios

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Abstract

​Aerosols significantly influence tropospheric oxidation and ozone formation by modulating photolysis rates and radical sinks.​ This study employs the GEOS-Chem model to analyze different aerosol heterogeneous uptake coefficients (0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.4) and their effects on photochemical ozone levels across regions in the near-present and under future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Higher uptake coefficients enhance the sink of radical species like HO 2 and expand the aerosol-inhibited regime (AIR), particularly in otherwise NO x -limited regions like India and East Asia, leading to a notable increase in surface ozone (40–50%), especially during colder months. Projections for 2046 indicate a global reduction in AIR areas, resulting from stricter emission controls. By 2096, the extent of AIR further diminishes, with regions such as Southeast Asia transitioning to NOx-limited conditions, though aerosol uptake of HO 2 continues to elevate surface ozone levels by 10–15% in heavily aerosol-loaded areas.

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