Investigation of Meteorological Condition during the Air Dynasty Helicopter Crash in Nepal Using the WRF Model

Mountain flight in Nepal remains a considerable challenge because of the rugged terrain. Many accidents have been attributed to unfavorable weather conditions related to the region’s complex geography. However, detailed meteorological analyses of these accidents have often been lacking. This research aims to investigate the prevailing meteorological conditions and reliable forecasts that may have developed over the complex topography of the high-hills during the Airbus helicopter H15 (AS350B3e), 9N-AMI accident dated 27 February 2019 in Koshi Province, Nepal. The crash resulted in the deaths of all seven Nepalese, including the Captain and the Minister of Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation, Government of Nepal (GoN), just minutes after takeoff from Pathivara, en-route to Tribhuvan International Airport (TIA), Kathmandu. To explore the meteorological factors involved in this tragic incident, weather conditions at the time of crash were evaluated using surface and satellite observations, along with output from the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The prevailing weather conditions during the crash, including low ceiling with cloud base, light to moderate snowfall, poor visibility, below-freezing temperatures, and a high amount of water droplets, suggest possible icing on rotor which could be a major contributing factor to the fatal crash. These findings demonstrate that the WRF-ARW model can effectively simulate weather conditions and may be a valuable tool for improving aviation safety in such challenging environments.