Global, Regional, and National Burden and Future Projections of Genital Herpes Incidence among Women of Childbearing Age

Objectives Genital herpes (GH), primarily caused by herpes simplex virus 2, imposes a significant burden on women of childbearing age (WCBA), raising the risk of pregnancy-related complications. Despite the high global burden, comprehensive studies on trends in GH incidence among WCBA are lacking. Methods Using GBD 2021 data, this study analyzed GH incidence in WCBA, explored Socio-demographic Index (SDI) associations and inequality trends, applied decomposition analysis, and predicted future trends with Age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models. Results Between 1990 and 2021, global GH cases in WCBA increased from 14.6 million to 22 million, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) saw a modest annual increase of 0.045%. Regional variations were observed, with low-middle SDI regions showing continued growth in ASIR. Unfavorable period effects were exhibited in low-middle SDI regions. Population growth was identified as the main driver of morbidity trends, with emerging health inequalities over time. By 2030, global GH cases in WCBA are expected to reach 23.6 million, with persistent challenges in low-SDI regions such as Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Congo, and Equatorial Guinea. Conclusion GH incidence among WCBA is on the rise, underlining the need for focused management strategies, particularly in low-middle SDI regions.