Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Changes: Implications for Ecosystem Services

Rapid urbanization and population growth in Lagos State have significantly transformed Land Use and Land Cover (LULC), resulting in profound alterations to key ecosystem services (ES), including provisioning, regulating, and supporting functions. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of LULC changes from 1985 to 2022, investigating their spatiotemporal dynamics and associated impacts on urban expansion, surface water resources, soil health, and carbon storage. Lagos State (Nigeria), as a rapidly urbanizing megacity, serves as a case study to illustrate these dynamics and their broader implications for sustainable urban development. High-resolution geospatial datasets, such as GLC_FCS30D, were processed using QGIS and Google Earth Engine for spatial analysis, while the InVEST model was used to quantify ecosystem service changes. Our findings reveal a 266% increase in impervious surfaces, predominantly replacing forests and wetlands. This transition has reduced infiltration capacity, heightened flood risks, and disrupted biodiversity-supporting habitats. Surface water areas showed marked fluctuations, with a significant decline from 1995 to 2005 attributable to anthropogenic activities. Soil quality analysis identified increased bulk density, reduced organic carbon, and diminished fertility in urbanized zones, undermining essential functions such as carbon sequestration and soil health. Our study highlights the urgent need for sustainable land management and the integration of nature-based solutions to mitigate the adverse environmental impacts of urbanization. Thus, providing a critical framework for policy interventions aimed at enhancing ecosystem resilience in the rapidly evolving landscape of Lagos State.