Prospects for pastoralist-farmer conflict in Africa

Pastoralism is a major way of life in the Sahelian and Sudanian (SaSu) zone of Africa, playing an important social-environmental role through food production and the use of suitable land for seasonal migrations (transhumance). Using Earth Observation (EO) data, we systematically analyze environmental factors—water access, soil properties, topography, vegetation cover, tree cover, road access, and biomass availability— to assess the SaSu’s suitability for transhumance as well as for permanent farming systems, and provide perspectives on potential conflict zones between herders and farmers in case of conflicting interests. Our study is the first to present comprehensive and detailed transhumance corridors that account for environmental constraints. We show that 69% of conflicts from 2001–2020 involve or are related to tensions between farmers and pastoralists, while 31% of conflicts are attributed to interactions between pastoralists. Our research provides valuable insights into the complex relationships between pastoralist communities and their socio-ecological environment and highlights the critical role of EO-based decision support systems in mapping and understanding pastoralism in the SaSu region.