Impact of reducing meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intake, health, cost of diets and the environment: A simulation among adults in Scotland

In a representative sample of Scottish adults, we evaluate 33 pathways to meeting the UK Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) recommendations to reduce all meat and dairy consumption by 20% by 2030, rising to a reduction of 35% in meat by 2050. Our pathways take into account existing dietary guidance, and modelled outcomes include intakes of 54 nutrients, obesity, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, all-cause mortality, cost of diets, greenhouse gas emissions, water and land use, and eutrophication. Nearly all modelled pathways are estimated to have benefits for most nutrition, health, and environmental outcomes, without negatively affecting diet costs. These benefits could be increased with targeted reductions in red meat among high consumers of red meat, and gram-for-gram replacement of meat and dairy with substitutes ranging from vegetables to beans to eggs to plant-based dairy alternatives.