Combined Effects of Weather and Health Shocks on Consumption in Rural Uganda

Background Compound and cascading shocks are common in rural areas and pose significant threats to food security and household welfare. While the importance of these combined shocks for rural communities is gaining attention, there is still very limited empirical research on the topic. This paper aims to assess the combined effects of weather and health shocks on the food, non-food, and total consumption of rural households in Uganda. Our analysis uses customized high-frequency panel household survey data collected across six waves, employing fixed effects quantile regression methods. Results The findings indicate that a short-term increase in temperature leads to a reduction in total consumption by 12–16%, with a more pronounced lagging effect on food consumption, which can be as high as 30%. Similarly, excessive rainfall adversely affects food consumption and diet diversity. The combined effects of health and weather shocks on consumption are negative and significant for lagged interaction terms, exhibiting varied effects across different household categories. Notably, the poorest quartile experiences the most substantial negative effects. Additionally, the findings reveal considerable consumption mobility among rural households over a 12-month period. Even households in the richest quartile may find themselves in the lowest consumption categories at certain times of the year. To manage these fluctuations in consumption, the poorest quartiles tend to rely on group networks and loans, while wealthier quartiles more frequently utilize remittances. Conclusion and policy implications Recognizing Uganda's vulnerability to extreme weather events and epidemics, this paper suggests key policy measures. Enhancing social protection through access to credit, social networks, safety nets, and health insurance can help households cope with climate challenges. These strategies will strengthen food system resilience and promote sustainable development.