Epidemiological Characteristics and Temporal Trends of Malignant Melanoma from 1990 to 2021, with Projections until 2044

OBJECTIVE Malignant melanoma, one of the most metastatic human cancers, is on the rise globally. However, its low prevalence leads to insufficient concern and its latest worldwide burden remains unclear. This study aims to update its epidemiological features to prompt timely and impactful interventions. METHODS Weanalysed malignant melanoma incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality trends from 1990 to 2021 across 204 countries using GBD 2021 data. We also projected incidence and mortality rates for the next two decades. RESULTS Globally, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of malignant melanoma in 2021 was 3.6 per 100,000 people with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the ASIR from 1990–2021 was 0.6%. The age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of malignant melanoma in 2021 was 19.6 per 100,000 people with the ASDR EAPC from 1990 to 2021 was -0.7%. The age-standardized mortality rate（ASMR）of malignant melanoma in 2021 was 0.7 per 100,000 people with the ASMR EAPC from 1990 to 2021 was -0.4%. Australia remained the region with the highest ASIR, ASDR, and ASMR in 2021. Older adult males had higher rates than females for all three measures. The incidence of MM is predicted to remain stable over the next twenty years while the mortality rate will significantly decline. CONCLUSION The global ASIR of malignant melanoma increased from 1990 to 2021, while the ASDR and ASMR decreased during the same period. High-SDI countries and older adult males require enhanced measures for the prevention and control of malignant melanoma.