GIS-based assessment of economically feasible off-grid mini-grids in Ethiopia

Mini-grids (MGs) have emerged as an economically viable alternative to communities in remote areas with low population density or with geographical constraints. However, identifying optimal locations where investments can lead to long-term and sustainable MG development remains a significant challenge due to the complex interplay of technical, social, and economic factors. This study addresses this challenge by identifying economically feasible renewable MG sites in Ethiopia. The study employs the Open-Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) to integrate critical factors such as resource availability, population density, land cover, terrain slope, and proximity to existing infrastructure. These factors are used based on equal weight criteria, under two grid proximity scenarios (2.5 km and 25 km from existing medium-voltage (MV) grid lines). The Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for the selected sites is calculated to assess economic feasibility. The results show that hydro MGs, with LCOE values ranging from 0.088–0.16 $/kWh, are the most cost competitive option. Under the 2.5 km and 25 km grid proximity scenarios, 306 and 84 potential mini-hydro sites are identified as capable of electrifying approximately 5 and 1.9 million people, respectively. Solar PV MGs exhibit significant potential and LCOE values ranging 0.15–0.22 $/kWh. Solar MGs could electrify 7.2 million people under the 2.5 km scenario and 3.2 million people under the 25 km scenario. Wind MG, with LCOE values ranging from 0.12–1.75 $/kWh, could provide electricity to 4.8 million people under the 2.5 km scenario and 3.1 million under the 25 km scenario. The study provides a roadmap to compare different suitable locations at the prefeasibility stage for MG deployment, guiding policymakers and investors in prioritizing MG deployment for sustainable rural electrification.