The impact of ocean currents and river temperatures on Arctic sea ice

Global warming plays a central role in the decline of Arctic sea ice, but the mechanisms remain debated. This study investigates the relationship between Sea Ice Area (SIA) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Arctic Ocean, analyzing satellite remote sensing data from 1982 to 2023. Results indicate that SST is a primary factor contributing to the reduction in SIA, with additional influences from Pacific and Atlantic water inflows, as well as riverine discharges, which elevate SST and further drive the decline in SIA. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SST changes precede SIA changes by approximately 13 days, supporting the hypothesis that rising SSTs drive ice melt. This study elucidates the impact of warming ocean currents and freshwater influxes on Arctic sea ice dynamics, contributing to understand the direct cause of Arctic sea ice decline.