Integrating FARSITE and GIS for Enhanced Forest Fire Spread Prediction and Simulation

Given the widespread fires in forests worldwide, which result in the destruction of ecosystems, effective management of these forests—particularly in relation to fire behavior and its spread—is essential. Forest fire prediction is a worldwide problem. There are different models to predict the spread of fires, especially in forest areas but these models are usually difficult to apply for real forest fire cases and the accuracy of prediction is lower than reality. The aim of this research is to identify and predict fire spread behavior and the process of fire spread in natural areas using the FARSITE model. To conduct the research, data including topography, vegetation, and meteorological information, were compiled the study area. Using GIS tools and the FARSITE model, a simulation map of fire spread behavior in the studied forest was generated. The model tested against the spread of fires under the field conditions where real fire had occurred in forest area. To assess the accuracy of the simulation, the Kappa coefficient method was employed. The simulation results showed that 34.93 hectares of the observed fire area were accurately simulated as a burned area, demonstrating a high degree of consistency with the actual fire spread. The overestimated area was minimal (0.85 hectares), while 37.7 hectares of the fire spot were not simulated as burned. The findings of this study can inform fire spread behavior prediction models and guide the development of preventive and control measures for fire risk management in forests.