Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Forest Fire Risk and Propagation in South Sumatra Peatlands: Insights from Remote Sensing and GIS (2014–2023)

Forest fires pose a significant threat to ecological sustainability, human health, and economic stability, especially in fire-prone regions like South Sumatra, Indonesia. Peatland areas are particularly vulnerable due to their unique ecological characteristics and human-induced disturbances. The objective of this study is to map, analyze, and investigate forest fire risk and fire spread in peatlands within South Sumatra, Indonesia, from 2014 to 2023 using Remote Sensing and GIS technologies. Key geomorphological, environmental, and human activity parameters were assessed, including slope, elevation, temperature, distance to roads, and land cover. Each parameter was classified into five fire hazard levels, and a comprehensive forest fire risk map was generated using an overlay approach via the intersect method in ArcGIS. The analysis revealed that 82% of South Sumatra's area is classified as having high to very high fire risk, with peatlands being the most vulnerable regions due to their low elevation, gentle slopes, moderate to high temperatures, and proximity to roads, which facilitate human access. Fire propagation was further examined using dNBR (differenced Normalized Burn Ratio) and hotspot data from NASA's FIRMS. The dNBR analysis identified fluctuations in burn severity over the years, with significant damage observed in 2015, 2018, and 2022. However, the accuracy of dNBR in peatland areas was affected by cloud cover. Hotspot density, analyzed using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), highlighted fire-prone zones, particularly in peatland regions. Findings show that human activity, coupled with climatic phenomena such as El Niño, significantly influences fire risk and propagation in South Sumatra, Indonesia.