Potential for expanding sorghum production in Europe in the face of climate change

Today, sorghum is a minor crop in Europe cultivated on only ~0.1% of the cropland area. Nonetheless, sorghum is of growing interest due to its high heat tolerance compared to other crops and better adaptation to future hot and dry summers. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of expanding sorghum cultivation in Europe under current and future climatic conditions. We also explored the possibility of replacing maize with locally-produced sorghum for feeding livestock. To this end, we developed a machine-learning model that predicts sorghum yields from high-resolution climate data. The model was trained on historical sorghum yield data collected at the county level in France, Italy, Spain, and the USA. Then, we used the model to predict sorghum yields for current and future climate conditions, following different climate change scenarios. In almost all scenarios, sorghum yields decreased by up to -1.5 t ha ^-1 in the southern part of Europe but increased substantially by up to + 3 t ha ^-1 in the northern part of Europe by end-of-century. We found that at least 90% of maize currently used to feed livestock could be replaced by sorghum in Europe if grown in one out of three years. These results provide valuable information for improving feed security in Europe in the face of climate change.