Future Changes in Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation Due to Global Warming in Jakarta

Global warming may lead to future changes in the diurnal cycle of precipitation in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia. Such changes were investigated using a high-resolution regional climate model under RCP8.5. Average temperatures around Indonesia are projected to be approximately 3 K higher than those of the present climate. Annual precipitation is not expected to increase over the entire region. However, an increasing trend of + 27% in annual maximum daily precipitation was observed. Jakarta has a characteristic diurnal precipitation cycle, with precipitation occurring at a fixed time owing to the convergence of the monsoon and land breeze. In the future, the northerly monsoon blowing over Java will strengthen. The precipitation zone around Jakarta is projected to remain stagnant for an extended period owing to the weakening of the land breeze because the temperature increase over land is more pronounced than that over the ocean. Changes in the location of this precipitation zone will affect the diurnal cycle of precipitation in Jakarta. Future changes in the land breeze and monsoon, both of which are local phenomena, will affect the Jakarta precipitation region.