Analyzing the epidemiological trends of cardiovascular diseases in China from 1990 to 2021 and predicting future statistics based on GBD data

Background About 330 million people in China suffer from cardiovascular disease(CVD). CVD has become a serious public health problem in China and worldwide. This study aims to analyze the epidemiological trends of cardiovascular diseases in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict future statistics to provide a reference for the prevention and control of CVD. Methods Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) about cardiovascular disease from 1990 to 2021. We searched the GBD database by the key word "Cardiovascular diseases". We included the CVD epidemiological metrics involving incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate and their age-standardized rate. We calculated the percentage change (%) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC, %) to initially analyze the epidemiological trends of CVD. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to further forecast cardiovascular disease statistics from 2022 to 2030. Results The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of CVD was 783.90 per 100,000 in 1990 and increased to 811.81 per 100,000 in 2021 (increased by 3.56%, EAPC = 0.12, P  < 0.05). The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of CVD increased by 9.62%(EAPC = 0.32, P  < 0.05) from 6024.24 per 100,000 in 1990 to 6603.72 per 100,000 in 2021. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CVD decreased by 31.30% (EAPC=-1.14, P  < 0.05) from 1990, reaching 280.11 per 100,000 in 2021. In 2021, male ASIR (847.06 per 100,000), ASPR (6616.82 per 100,000) and ASMR (372.54 per 100,000) were higher than females (772.86 per 100,000, 6587.69 per 100,000, 217.02 per 100,000). The age group over 80 years had the highest incidence rate (9656.94 per 100,000), prevalence rate (57458.84 per 100,000) and mortality rate (7042.60 per 100,000) among all age groups in 2021. The forecasted ASIR of CVD will slowly increase to 812.80 per 100,000 (95% CI : 806.75 ~ 818.84) in 2022 and to 820.26 per 100,000 (95% CI : 762.24 ~ 878.28) in 2030. The forecasted ASPR of CVD will be 6700.67 per 100,000 (95% CI : 6674.52 ~ 6726.81) in 2022 and 7626.55 per 100,000 (95% CI : 6945.36 ~ 8307.75) in 2030. The forecasted ASMR of CVD will decrease to 275.80 per 100,000 (95% CI : 263.61 ~ 288.00) in 2022 and reach 242.42 per 100,000 (95% CI : 179.93 ~ 304.90) in 2030. Conclusions CVD is still a major public health challenge facing China now and in the future. Relevant measures should be taken to prevent and control CVD.