Someone Else’s Risk: Meta-analytical Evidence of a Self-Other Discrepancy in Climate Change-related Risk Perceptions

Climate change poses severe risks. In adapting to and mitigating these risks, unbiased risk assessments are essential. Yet, individuals systematically rate their personal risks as lower than those of others, believing that they are at lower risk than most (i.e., a self-other discrepancy). In a pre-registered multi-level meta-analysis, we estimate the extent and boundary conditions for this self-other discrepancy for climate change-related risks. The synthesis incorporated 60 datasets, comprising 83 effect sizes from 70,249 participants across 16 countries. Results revealed that in 81 of 83 included effect sizes, individuals’ rated their personal climate change-related risks as lower than others ( d = -0.54, 95% CI [-0.68, -0.39]). Notably, this skewness was less pronounced when individuals compared themselves to specific others (e.g., neighbors) rather than compatriots or humanity in general ( d = -0.23, 95% CI [-0.35, -0.11]). For the type of hazards, however, risk perception was similarly skewed across specific extreme weather-related hazards and climate change, as a broader driver of hazards. These results highlight a critical challenge for risk communicators: a widespread misperception of having lower risks than others may hinder public engagement in climate change-related mitigation and adaptation efforts.